Weather Forecasting

The weather forecast for today is: 100% chance of … SUCK!

I took a weather forecasting course a couple of winters ago to add to my ‘black box.’ It was there that I came to the conclusion that the ‘science’ of weather casting is rather inexact. I mean, predicting the weather 24 hours out is not all that difficult, you can actually get some pretty good odds, but beyond that, it’s pretty much a crap shoot. Lately, our local meteorologists seem to have taken up the daisy method of predicting the weather. (Find a daisy, and one by one remove the petals while saying ‘He loves me, he loves me not.’)

Well, today … they got it right!

Earlier today, from the Environment Canada web site:

Winter storm warning in effect.

Tonight..Snow at times heavy and local blowing snow changing to freezing rain mixed with ice pellets this evening then to rain near midnight. Snow and ice pellet amount 10 to 15 cm. Wind east 50 km/h gusting to 70. Temperature rising to plus 1 by morning.

Friday..Cloudy. 60 percent chance of wet flurries late in the morning and in the afternoon. Wind east 50 km/h gusting to 70 becoming southwest 30 gusting to 50 in the morning. Temperature steady near plus 2.

About 2:30 this afternoon, I drove into a wall of snow which has been blowing steady every since. Now, about 10 mins ago, we noticed a change in the sound of the snow hitting the plastic – we’ve got ice pellets. So far today – they are 2 for 2. We will have to see what happens around midnight – looking for a 3 point play.

How does this relate to living on a boat? Well, it’s really more about sailing. If weather forecasting here at the dock is a gamblers paradise, what is it like when sailing where the forecast is something you base life decisions on? How do you deal with the uncertainty?